China's outlook: 10 questions, 20 answers
Updated: 2011-12-30 11:38
By Xin Zhiming (China Daily European Edition)
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Sheng Laiyun, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics
China's inflationary pressure may have continued to fall in the last two months of this year, thanks to decreasing food prices. In addition, the downward movement of global commodity prices has helped tame soaring imported inflation. However, China may have entered into a long-run period of moderate inflation. In 2012, the nation's consumer prices may increase again because of increasing labor and energy costs. It is an inevitable stage of China's industrialization process.
Another factor that may fuel inflation next year is that some developed economies, such as the United States, are likely to continue their monetary easing policies to stimulate economic recovery, which means commodity prices are expected to go up as more liquidity is injected.
Peng Wensheng, chief economist with China International Capital Corp Ltd
Along with cooling economic growth, China's inflation is expected to decrease gradually next year. The consumer price index is forecast to be as low as 3 percent in 2012.
The main contributors to the soaring inflation in 2011 were cyclical factors, in that supplies couldn't satisfy market demands so prices were raised. The situation has changed now and it is clear that consumer prices are likely to further decline.
The easing of inflationary pressure will provide more space for policymakers to loosen monetary policy because maintaining a GDP growth rate of more than 8 percent is likely to be the top task of the government in 2012.
3. Will the property market collapse next year?
Wang Haifeng, director of the International Cooperation Center affiliated with the National Development and Reform Commission
If the word "collapse" refers to the bankruptcy of some property developers, I believe such a correction should be allowed in regions that have seen too much price growth and speculation over the past few years. Such a collapse is necessary and healthy for the long-term development of China's property sector and the overall economy. If the government doesn't address the excessively high property prices right now, it will become more problematic to the economy in the long run.
Meanwhile, the government's tightened measures regarding real estate should remain until prices fall to a reasonable level. An annual growth rate of 7.5 to 8.5 percent is acceptable for such an active adjustment. And the government should let the market play a bigger role in this round of adjustment.
Wang Tao, head of China economic research at UBS Securities Co Ltd
I don't think so. The weakness in the property market has been largely driven by the government's tightening measures, including purchase restrictions, higher mortgage down payment requirements and price restrictions.
We have been surprised that sales and prices have held up so well after more than a year of policy tightening. We had expected them to decline by 10 percent in 2011.
As the government continues its current property tightening policies, we expect to see sales decline in the coming months while prices may finally start to drop.
We expect the private (commodity) housing market to weaken as the government continues the tightening policy, but we do not expect a collapse in that market.
Meanwhile, we think social housing will support overall construction in the next 12 to 15 months. The government has set an ambitious target of starting the construction of 10 million units in both 2011 and 2012.
4. Will China suffer a trade deficit in 2012?
Wei Jianguo, former vice-minister of commerce
The ongoing European debt crisis will hurt China's economic growth and the nation's exports. China's exports are expected to slow down to single-digit figures in 2012 from the double digits we have been seeing. We cannot exclude the possibility that China will see a trade deficit next year.
Although the European nations are striving to rescue the economy, I am still pessimistic about the prospects. The suspension of European debt will lead to decreasing demand for China's goods and drag down China's exports, probably causing a trade deficit for 2012.