China's outlook: 10 questions, 20 answers

Updated: 2011-12-30 11:38

By Xin Zhiming (China Daily European Edition)

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7. Will the Chinese stock market continue to see volatility?

China's outlook: 10 questions, 20 answers

Frank Gong, vice-chairman of China Investment Banking at JP Morgan Chase & Co

The valuations of the A-share market have fallen so low that the systemic risk in China's economy may have already been factored into current market prices.

While inflationary pressure will continue to ease, policymakers are likely to further loosen credit tightening. China could also benefit from lower commodities prices that were pushed down by the poor prospects for the world's economy.

It seems that the most painful period for investors has passed. If the reserve requirement ratio is lowered by the central bank to 18 percent, it may help improve liquidity and trigger a bull run in the market that could last for several years.

Ye Tan, financial commentator and professor at Fudan University

The loosening of China's monetary policy may help boost market sentiment in the short term and improve liquidity in the market. But it cannot help improve corporate earnings.

The volatility in the stock market reflects the fact that investors' confidence remains fragile and the rally triggered by the monetary loosening is unlikely to last long.

A long-term bull run in the market is built on the expectation of good corporate profits and investment returns. What the global economy needs is not money but new growth points. Given investors' clear expectations of poor earnings results of listed companies in the fourth quarter, any rally in the market will likely be short-lived.

8. Will China be hit by a backlash in its energy saving and emission reducing efforts?

He Jiankun, director of the Institute of Low Carbon Economy at Tsinghua University

The Chinese economy has shown signs of slowing down, but mainly as a result of macro-control measures. That is a good thing for energy conservation and greenhouse gas emissions.

China set a lower annual economic growth rate at about 7 percent for 2011 to 2015, showing the country's resolution in transforming its economic structure. As a result, energy-guzzling and high-polluting industries will be further controlled.

As the measures that the government introduced to target inflation took effect, the cooling property market also affected the demand for steel, cement and other building materials. The momentum is expected to be sustained. It is also good for saving energy and emission reduction.

Slower growth would be better for China's longer-term sustainable growth prospects and realizing the country's targets for conserving energy and reducing emissions.

China intends to cut energy intensity - energy consumption per unit of GDP - by 16 percent from 2011 to 2015, which means the nation needs to achieve an average cut of about 3.2 percent during the next five years.

However, in the first three quarters of the opening year of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015), energy intensity fell just 1.6 percent. Tougher measures are expected to be adopted in 2012 to achieve the country's target in energy-saving and emission-reduction.

Christoph Frei, secretary general of the World Energy Council

China is in a new arms race. We have already seen areas of the country affected by brown-outs as the infrastructure developments struggle to keep pace with increased demand.

Only vision-led and coherent energy policies that address the "energy trilemma" will gain public acceptance and investors' trust in delivering a sustainable energy future. This is particularly true in the case of energy efficiency, which is not the "low-hanging fruit" that many commentators have suggested.

China has made significant headway in delivering energy-efficiency programs. The 1,000 Enterprise Program is aimed at reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP by 20 percent over five years. Our findings suggest that this program has contributed to a considerable reduction in energy consumption and carbon emissions in the target enterprises.

As China continues its inexorable growth, becoming the world's No 1 energy consumer, the challenge is to build on these successes and balance the need for energy security and social equity. However, environmental-impact mitigation remains the country's greatest challenge, especially in the context of increased urbanization, with up to 50 megacities projected by 2050.

Potential stresses in the energy-water nexus will need to be carefully monitored. Car ownership is also growing at a rate of 12 percent a year, and our transport scenarios show that clear policies are essential to limit the increase in greenhouse gas emissions.