Germany the link between China, Europe
Updated: 2012-02-17 10:57
By Wang Yiwei (China Daily European Weekly)
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China's diplomatic relations with Europe have been stalled between its bilateral relations with European Union member states and its relations with the EU itself. In bilateral relations, Beijing has been trying to decide on its priorities among the "big three" (the United Kingdom, France and Germany). It is time now for China to make clear its perceptions and priorities on its European diplomacy.
After the euro debt crisis developed, more and more facts have emerged to support the view that Beijing needs stronger ties with Berlin because of Germany's important role in European integration and the current state of Sino-German relations.
Zhang Chengliang / China Daily |
In the short term, the EU cannot get rid of the shadow of the eurozone debt crisis. The debt issue is the main item on the EU's work agenda, where Germany plays a leading role. However, the fact we need to be aware of, as Henry Kissinger told me recently in Shanghai, is that Europe has still not emerged from the shadow of World War II. The historical memory of Nazi Germany is important in explaining contemporary Germany's hesitation in providing assistance to other nations caught in the European debt crisis. Any consideration of China's relationship with Europe and Germany should take into account historical factors.
Germany holds the key to the European debt market and sooner or later it will make a move to resolve the eurozone crisis. The debt crisis has encouraged European protectionism in trade, which has seriously affected China's trading ties with Europe. The EU is China's largest trade partner, and China will certainly not sit on the sidelines of the euro debt crisis. China and Germany must take coordinated action on this matter.
The euro debt crisis not only affects the credibility of governments and the European Central Bank (ECB), but it also damages market confidence in the euro. China and Germany should strengthen their cooperation by taking advantage of existing bilateral mechanisms such as minister-level dialogue and visits by leaders.
In the long run, Germany will use the euro debt crisis to reform the eurozone according to its own policies. Take the ECB as an example. It is playing a key role in solving the euro problem. It has 25 members, seven members on its executive board, and 17 bank governors. Germany has proposed adjusting its representation on the ECB based on a weighted index of purchasing power, which would increase its representation by as much as 30 percent. Germany's power in European integration has been increased by the debt crisis.
The French-German engine that drives European integration has become the German-French engine. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has publicly announced her support of a second term for French President Nicolas Sarkozy. It would have been almost impossible for a conservative German leader to make such a bold statement had the debt crisis not pushed Germany to the forefront of European integration.
The key to promoting a strategic partnership with the EU through Sino-German ties is to prevent Germany's manufacturing industry from declining because its defense forces were crippled by the United States after World War II. EU economic governance is moving in the direction Germany prefers. However, factors such as Britain's reluctance to integrate and the struggles between France and Germany, between Europe and the US, and between Europe and the so-called PIGS countries of Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain, may cause the German manufacturing engine to shut down, causing European integration to collapse. So it is very important that China-Germany strategic consultations on European affairs be held to further promote the China-Europe strategic partnership.
The development of China-Europe ties requires better relations between Beijing and Berlin because of the huge trade between China and Germany. Trade between the two nations reached 145 billion euros last year, accounting for 40 percent of trade between China and Europe. Additionally, the leaders of the two countries have agreed to increase bilateral trade to 200 billion euros by 2015. Germany is China's biggest European trade partner, investor and technology exporter.
Moreover, China-Germany ties have a global significance rather than just importance at EU level. China and Germany share an extensive interest in the global economic system. In diplomatic affairs, the two countries occupy a similar international environment and both maintain low profiles in their international affairs. Therefore, a stable Sino-German relationship is the ballast for smooth ties between China and Europe.
Such a statement is supported by the nature of US diplomacy toward Europe. The US is well aware that, although the EU does have significance in the current world structure, it is unable to develop as an overall, independent strategic power. So it is unrealistic to believe that US global hegemony can be countered through a Sino-European partnership. US power lies mainly in its currency and military power, while there are increasing doubts over the euro's ability to counterbalance the US dollar. With regard to hard power, it is almost inconceivable that the EU could play a balancing role to the US in the Asia-Pacific region.
So, in developing relations with Europe through its ties with Germany, China can learn from US diplomacy toward Europe.
The US keeps a keen watch on the EU. It has never developed its trans-Atlantic relations through the institution of the EU. The US claimed that the EU could not be developed into a federal state as the states of the US were. The US ambassador to the EU is far less important than its ambassador to NATO. The Americans can cancel the EU-US summit without giving a reason; many people believe US company Goldman Sachs helped Greece falsify its accounts to help it enter the eurozone; a US economist developed the euro; and several US think tanks are working proactively in Europe.
There is ample proof that the US is closely watching European affairs. The US strategy toward European integration is to disable the EU's defense capability through NATO, to hinder European integration through Britain (the condition for US tolerance of the euro is that the pound should stay out of the eurozone) and to curb French influence on Europe through Germany.
US diplomacy targets Europe's major powers, new EU countries and regionally pivotal nations. That is quite pragmatic and shows good strategic insight. Besides the traditional powers, the US has paid special attention to the regionally pivotal countries. The US has taken opportunities to expand NATO and the missile defense system through new EU countries to drive a wedge among European nations.
Poland's economy has performed particularly well during the European crisis. Learning from the US experience, China should also strengthen its strategic partnership with Poland to help the EU's economic governance as the Poles hope to play a more active role in EU affairs.
In general, China can take US diplomacy toward Europe as a reference for its own diplomatic initiatives. Of course, in practice China's diplomacy will not be a mere copy of the US approach. In particular, China should take note of how important the US sees its ties with Germany. Due to Germany's historic "sin", a Europe dominated by Germany is not possible anymore. Germany's defense forces operate under strict limits and have a low profile in international affairs.
To achieve its goal of strategic control over Europe the US has taken advantage of Germany's low profile by utilizing the German tradition of "over-correcting its defect". The US has also taken advantage of the view that Germany is too dependent on the US and the European belief, especially in France, that Germany cannot lead Europe as it has never had any experience of doing so.
As for China's diplomacy toward Europe, its ties with France are important because France is a strategic power at both the EU and United Nations levels. As well, it is probably unrealistic to promote China-Europe relations through Chinese ties with Britain.
To sum up, in its relations with major powers in Europe, China should rely on France to help the EU achieve some things, while relying on Germany to prevent the EU from doing other things and on the UK to encourage the EU to make no contribution at all.
The author is a professor at Tongji University where he serves as executive dean of the Institute of International and Public Affairs. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
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