Growth and reform

Updated: 2016-01-01 08:16

By Andrew Moody(China Daily Europe)

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"We still expect some monetary easing next year, although mostly at the beginning. Monetary policy has already eased quite a lot and I don't think we have seen the full impact of this yet. I think we are going to see growth looking better and improving as a result of the measures already taken."

Growth and reform

Evans-Pritchard also believes the government will probably set a 7 percent growth target for 2016 again but believes that 6.5 percent would be a more positive sign.

"I think that would be a clear sign that the people in the Party who are pushing for less emphasis on growth would have won a concession.

"We are getting to a position where it is not easy to control growth. It has been slowing because investment has been slowing and this is because the rate of return on investment has been falling because the capital stock is already quite large. There is not really much the government can do about that."

Liu Zhiqin, senior fellow at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at the Renmin University of China in Beijing, insists the government is relying on three main drivers for growth.

These consist of the performance of Internet companies such as Alibaba and Tencent, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the Chinese dream of creating an affluent consumer society.

"I think there has to be a question as to how much momentum they can give the economy in the short term. It is not clear whether the Internet can really be an engine of the economy since it is more a tool and a facilitator," he says.

"The Belt and Road Initiative could deliver but over a much longer time frame, like 10 or 15 years. I don't think there is any short-term dividend."

Liu believes the economy will achieve growth of 6.5 or 6.6 percent in 2016 but doubling the 2010 GDP level by 2020 might prove difficult.

"I think the economy could be heading into some very stormy weather over the next five years and will face many challenges. I think this first year will be crucial to the overall plan being delivered."