Another one on the way

Updated: 2014-02-14 08:47

By Joseph Catanzaro, Yan Yiqi and Li Aoxue (China Daily Europe)

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For the past 11 years, the archipelago has recorded negative population growth. By the end of 2012, people aged 60 years or older made up 20.32 percent of the population.

Current projections show that, by 2030, if the aging problem is left unchecked, 40 percent of the local population will fall into the 60 years or older demographic.

In short, if China is beginning to brace for a gray tidal wave, Zhoushan is in line to be one of the first areas inundated.

The relaxed family planning policy went into effect in the rest of Zhejiang province on Jan 17, with other cities and regions expected to follow suit in the first half of this year.

But Zhoushan, because it is a microcosm for the aging population problem now facing China, and the earliest adopter of the new rules, is both a petri dish and the only real indicator to date for measuring reaction to the second-child policy.

The early figures coming out of Zhoushan, where 98 percent of the population was ineligible to have more than one child before the policy change, suggest Le and Zhou's enthusiasm is slow to catch.

In the month following the change of policy, about 3,000 locals approached Zhoushan Health Bureau to inquire about having a second child. However, that has yet to translate into many couples applying to do so, says Yang Ya'er, the department's deputy director.

"They (people) are more rational than excited," Yang says. "They did not show up urgent to get pregnant. They came to get to find out more about the policy, to understand it and to make sure they are eligible under this policy. It doesn't mean they are going to have a baby right now."

As of January, 87 women in Zhoushan had sought permission to have a second child, and 41 had been issued with a certificate to do so after the completion of a 30-day application process.

"The conclusion is that not that many people are rushing into having a second child here," Yang says. "That means the low birth rate will not change overnight."

Yang says 80 percent of the 87 applicants are aged between 30 and 34, with the majority of the remaining applicants aged between 25 and 30.

"Only one applicant is over 40," she says.

So does the relatively slow and low take-up in Zhoushan suggest women in China do not want a second child?

Mao Yafei, vice-dean of Zhoushan Women's Hospital, does not necessarily think so.

At a consultation clinic that the hospital has opened to advise couples interested in having another baby, Mao says staff have been seeing a steady stream of women over 30 who are interested in having a second child, but want to assess their health and the risks first.

Nationally, officials estimate the policy change will see about 2 million extra babies being born every year for the next five years, on top of the existing annual birth rate of about 16 million.

Li Jianmin, a demographer with Nankai University in Tianjin, says studies show about 60 percent of eligible people surveyed would consider having a second baby.

The huge interest surrounding these figures has also given birth to a number of theories at home and abroad about how effective the new policy will be as an agent for demographic change.

Mao says what she is seeing in Zhoushan contradicts a line being put forward by international pundits that suggests China's labor force problem will be exacerbated in the short term by women leaving the workplace after having a second child.

"Women of an older age are asking questions about whether they will be safe during the pregnancy (to work) and how well they will recover after the pregnancy, so they can go back to work," she says.

Public servant Zhao Zhenghao, 34, is one of those locals now planning and saving for two children.

Tucking into a meal in a restaurant in Zhoushan, he says his wife, who is hoping to be pregnant with their first child this year, will not give up her career but may adjust her working hours.

"My wife will not give up her job," he says. "She can have shorter working hours, and so can I."

He is also dismissive of another view commonly bandied about by foreign Sinologists that Chinese people of child bearing age will be unable to afford a second baby, particularly because they will need to financially support two sets of parents and possibly even their grandparents.

"Two children won't be that much (more expensive) than one," he says.