Yearender: Predictions for 2016 through 20 questions
Updated: 2015-12-31 07:53
(China Daily)
|
|||||||||||
Zhou Yongsheng |
11. Will Sino-Japanese relations improve?
Zhou Yongsheng, a professor of Japanese studies at China Foreign Affairs University
Yes. Beijing-Tokyo ties do have potential to improve in the coming year, but some bumps are almost unavoidable. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe forced two controversial security bills through parliament this year, and these pose a grave security threat to China. Encouraged (or abducted) by the United States, Japan may, and in fact is, preparing to intervene in the South China Sea affairs. This is also worth noting.
Along with Abe's so-called value diplomacy that aims at containing China, the two countries' enduring dispute over China's Diaoyu Islands will remain a major sore point, even the most combustible part of the bilateral relations.
For example, both sides are yet to establish a maritime communication mechanism between their defense departments after a series of negotiations, which is thought to be related to Japan's refusal to include the Diaoyu Islands and its surrounding waters in the mechanism.
True, the Sixth China-Japan-Republic of Korea Summit resumed in Seoul last month after a three-year hiatus. But its diplomatic significance outweighs its actual impact on the three neighbors, as there has been little substantial improvement in China-Japan and ROK-Japan relations, although the recent compromise reached between Japan and the ROK may help improve ties between the two countries.
The biggest uncertainty in ties between China and Japan lies in Japan's persistent pursuit of becoming a "normal state", which is hardly convincing given its dubiously specified conditions for waging war; so major breakthroughs are not likely to happen in a short period of time.
To push for better ties between China and Japan requires Japan's sincere efforts to address the aforementioned concerns. For its part, China should keep engaging in high-level contacts with Japan, while encouraging economic cooperation and grassroots exchanges. Also, it could seek closer cooperation with other countries in the region to help Tokyo get rid of its parochial mentality.
Jin Yongming |
12. Will the tensions in South China Sea and East China Sea escalate?
Jin Yongming, director of the Ocean Strategy Studies Center at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences
Possible, but they will be controllable. Basically, the disputes in the South China Sea with some members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and in the East China Sea with Japan, range from maritime borderlines and exploitation of oceanic resources to security issues.
In particular, it is almost impossible to peacefully resolve the territorial clashes near China's Nansha Islands in the immediate future, because neither China nor the other claimant states are likely to compromise. Enhancing their maritime cooperation in less sensitive fields and expediting their negotiations over a code of conduct for the South China Sea, might help defuse the tensions.
China and the United States also have different standpoints regarding whether the military activities in other countries' exclusive economic zones and innocent passage (of foreign warships) through territorial waters are permitted without advance approval. The EEZ issue should be dealt with through bilateral negotiations, while warships should abide by the domestic maritime regulations and laws of the countries concerned.
That China and the Republic of Korea started their first formal talks on maritime demarcation in Seoul last Tuesday, is likely to serve as a precedent in similar transnational negotiations, should they manage to reach a consensus through dialogue. Of course, China should not take any steps backwards particularly in the exploitation of fishery resources.
China does not accept nor will it participate in the Philippines's South China Sea arbitration, which makes little difference to their core differences over some Nansha islets and reefs and maritime demarcation. To prevent the clashes from spilling over requires Beijing to make consistent responses to the accusations made by Manila, and further disclose its stance on the South China Sea issues. That being said, China still has a mountain to climb in promoting its "dual track" approach.
Related Stories
Top 10 policy changes in China in 2015 2015-12-28 07:05
Yearender: Ten most talked-about newsmakers in 2015 2015-12-31 06:36
Yearender 2015: Chinese athletes of year 2015-12-29 11:29
Yearender: 2015 auctions overview 2015-12-29 11:23
Yearender: China and US in 2015 - moving forward together 2015-12-29 10:12
Yearender 2015: Key words from stories that created buzz in China 2015-12-29 07:02
Today's Top News
Storm Frank batters northern Britain
Over 1 million refugees fled to Europe by sea in 2015
Germany to spend 17b euros on refugees in 2016
Demand booms for high-end financial talent
Abe expresses apology for Korean victims of comfort women
North China encounters gas supply shortage
Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank launched
Russia says it has proof of Turkey's support for IS
Hot Topics
Lunar probe , China growth forecasts, Emission rules get tougher, China seen through 'colored lens', International board,
Editor's Picks
Xi just needs to turn up for a grand welcome |
Stepping up |
Rural families still hope for male heirs |
Blue skies over Beijing ... for now |
V-Day parade for 70th WWII anniversary |
Tianjin blasts: Death, damage and bravery |