What should China do if Greek exit from euro leads to broader financial fallout?

Updated: 2012-05-29 07:50

(China Daily)

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What should China do if Greek exit from euro leads to broader financial fallout?

Pan Jiancheng

Deputy director-general of China Economic Monitoring and Analysis Center of the national bureau of statistics

A1

Given the amount of trade between China and Greece, if (Greece) were to leave the eurozone, that would not be likely to have a big effect on China.

What is really worrisome is that if more European countries such as Spain and Italy were to follow suit, then the eurozone would be in big trouble. In that case, the effect on China and the global economy would be huge.

The chances of that happening, though, are small for the time being.

A2

I would argue that the economic slowdown in itself doesn't matter much. We should only start to worry if the slowdown leads to a rise in unemployment and a decrease in people's incomes. So far, we haven't seen those two things happen in China.

Although the GDP growth rate slowed to 8.1 percent in the first quarter, the fifth decline seen in a row, we still need more time to know if there is a trend. And the government should be very careful in adjusting its existing policies, such as those that pertain to real estate. A large-scale stimulus package, like what we adopted during the 2008-09 period, will not prove beneficial for economic restructuring.

A3

It's a question that should be answered by businesses. Some of them have turned their eyes to other emerging markets, while some have tried to better explore the domestic market.

It's also a good time for them to become stronger competitors and adjust their plans.

A4

Since external conditions remain harsh, I believe we should do more to stimulate domestic consumption to promote growth.

China has to reform its economy, making it driven more by consumption instead of relying heavily on exports and investments. The quality, instead of scale, of growth really matters at the moment.

Given the slew of measures the government has taken, such as improving (the country's) social welfare system and reducing taxes, now is also a good time to boost domestic consumption. And I believe domestic consumption's contribution to GDP growth will climb this year.

Chinese consumer confidence in the first quarter of this year rose to its highest level since 2005, amid a lowering of inflationary pressures and a cooling of the property market, according to Nielsen's latest survey.

What should China do if Greek exit from euro leads to broader financial fallout?

Zhang Bin

Researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

A1

If Greece leaves, there are two big concerns for the Chinese economy. An exit of Greece may cause upheavals in the financial market, threatening the European banking system.

If the banking system collapses, banks cannot provide export-credit guarantees or make irrevocable letters of credit, which will be catastrophic for Chinese export enterprises and their business will be suspended. But I think that's a low-probability scenario.

The departure will also affect China's capital market. Every time Europe's debt crisis deepens, large amounts of capital withdraw from emerging economies such as China, leading to domestic currency depreciation.

In the first quarter, China's foreign exchange reserves declined (and there were) changes in China's trade balance as well as a slowdown of capital inflows.

A2

A Greek exit would be a huge challenge to China's trade if it affected the European banking system. Banks in Italy and Spain may also go out of operation for months.

It's risky that Chinese exporters will no longer trust the creditworthiness of European banks and dare not take orders.

Similar to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the chaos may only last for months, but Chinese companies must be prepared. China's economy is slowing down, a reflection of its structural transition. Whether a new round of the eurozone debt crisis will hit or not, China has to draw on its inner strength for growth.

I think an urgent task ahead for policymakers is to strive to maintain jobs in the export sector in the coming months.

A3

Exports to Europe declined greatly in the first quarter and it's true that Europe would become less important as an import and export market if the crisis intensifies.

China can still count on other emerging economies with rapid economic growth. Overall, external demand could only contribute a very limited amount to the Chinese economy in the long run.

A4

Policymakers will have very limited leeway to ease the external risks or improve the dim global economic realities. For the domestic market, a great concern is that the government should not over-stimulate the economy and release excessive liquidity, to avoid possible aftereffects.

There are ways to activate the domestic market by lowering entry barriers for service industries such as medical care and education and cutting taxes for small and medium-sized enterprises.

Opportunities for investment are enormous, but the government's role is easing market entry instead of investing heavily (by such means) as accelerating infrastructure spending.