Tougher year looms in 2012

Updated: 2011-12-06 07:52

By Xin Zhiming (China Daily)

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A China Daily survey of economists indicates growth will slow down, Xin Zhiming reports in Beijing.

This year has been a tough one for policymakers. Since it began, they have been racking their brains to rein in inflation and battle rising home prices without provoking a sudden economic slump.

The bad news: 2012 will be even tougher.

China Daily surveyed numerous economists - all opinion leaders in Chinese economic studies - and while they differ on many topics, they seem to agree on one thing: The Chinese economy is set to slow down.

No one is sure how serious that slowdown might be, just as few anticipated that GDP growth in China, in the first quarter of 2009, would drop to slightly more than 6 percent (from its usual 10-plus percent) in the wake of the global financial crisis.

As one economist said, China risks a hard landing if the economies of the European Union and the United States are worse than expected and the country's property market slumps too fast.

Meanwhile, China faces other uncertainties, the survey found, including currency revaluation, local government debt, a weak capital market and the reduction of carbon emissions.

None of them will be easy to tackle, especially for policymakers who are preoccupied with the problem of growth.

(China Daily 12/06/2011 page1)