China's fundamentals healthier than other EMs: DB
Updated: 2014-02-12 16:53
Since the beginning of December, the MSCI Emerging Markets index, a key indicator of equity market performance, has declined 13 percent.
The Chinese H share index has dropped by 16 percent during the same period, close to the falls in the country equity indices of Turkey (22 percent) and Argentina (19.8 percent), and sharper than that of Brazil (12.7 percent).
Sell-offs in many emerging markets, especially Turkey, Argentina and Brazil, were triggered by their sharp currency depreciation. This was caused by the United States' tapering of its quantitative easing policy,market fears of an external debt crisis, the negative impact of local rate hikes, high inflation and potential economic contractions, as well as political instability.
"It appears that the market believes that China's economic situation has deteriorated by as much as those in Argentina and Turkey in recent weeks. Some investors are now asking us when China will ease its macro policy to stimulate the Chinese economy, which is a question no one in the Chinese government is talking about, simply because there is no such need." read the Deutsche Bank report, by Ma Jun, its chief economist for Greater China.
"We think this market perception of China is wrong. We strongly believe that China's economic fundamentals are much healthier than most other EMs and China is one of the least vulnerable EM economies to US tapering in 2014," wrote Ma.
The report argues that China's political situation is stable, partly due to the success of the anti-corruption campaign, while other EM countries, such as Thailand, Turkey, South Africa, India and Brazil, are now either experiencing serious political challenges and/or facing very uncertain election outcomes.
In addition, China is implementing the most aggressive structural reforms in decades, including necessary ones to address the country's financial risks. This determination is not seen in most other EMs due to political stalemate, according to the report.