China looks for breakthroughs as new european leaders settle into office.

As the Year of the Sheep approaches, there is every reason to think that, as the Year of the Horse lapses into history, impending changes in relations between China and the European Union will gather pace. But that seems contingent on at least one thing: Brussels giving as much attention to Beijing as it seems to be intent on giving Washington.

Last year Xi Jinping visited EU headquarters in Brussels, the first such visit by a Chinese president, and one that offered the prospect of sustained dialogue between China and the EU at a higher level following years of annual summits between Chinese premiers and European leaders. Once again, the prospect of such hopes being realized lies in the hands of the EU, in particular those of new European Council President Donald Tusk, who Beijing is hoping will respond to China's enthusiasm for a closer relationship.

Were a breakthrough to be made, it could be well-timed, as the two prepare to celebrate the 40th anniversary of their diplomatic ties this year.

Beijing has already started to make changes to usher in such a breakthrough. In addition to Xi visiting Western European countries and EU headquarters last year, Premier Li Keqiang paid three visits to the continent. These steps highlight how important Europe is on Beijing's agenda.

However, when former Polish prime minister Tusk took office as European Council president on Dec 1, he set out four priorities and emphasized the importance of transatlantic relations. The previous month, when Jean-Claude Juncker took over as European Commission president, he too talked of Brussels-Washington relations as one of his 10 priorities.

Chi Fulin, president of the China Institute of Reform and Development, a think tank in Haikou, Hainan province, says: "Beijing and Brussels need to adjust their foreign policies and treat each other as true strategic partners as they survey the year ahead. And Brussels really does need to wake up and respond to China's initiatives urgently."

Brussels needs to consider giving Beijing market economy status this year, which would be a symbolic gesture in bolstering their partnership, Chi says.

Both sides should conduct feasibility studies on setting up free trade zones quickly, even if Brussels insists that continuing negotiations on an investment treaty are the top priority, he says.

Brussels also needs to respond to Xi's Silk Road initiative even as it goes about implementing a 315 billion euro ($372 billion) investment plan over the next three years, Chi says.

"As a think tank, we plan to do a feasibility study on a free trade agreement this year, and we want to find convergences in each other's economic development programs."

In a recent phone call with Xi, Tusk said he would be visiting Beijing, although it remains unclear when this will be.

Glyn Ford, a former member of the European Parliament and executive director of Polint, a political consultancy in Brussels, says Tusk should visit China as early as possible in his term of office to help shape his thinking.

"The fact that the EU-China Summit in Brussels and the UN Conference on Climate Change in Paris are both being held this year will have an impact. Tusk's visit will set the agenda for the first and help establish common ground on the second.

"Europe will need China to confirm its recent commitments to act to control greenhouse gas emissions and in return recognize that any settlement must impose an equality of sacrifice on both producers and consumers."

Ford sees this year as a watershed for EU-China relations, one that will set the tone of the relationship and determine its substance for the rest of the commission's mandate and beyond.

"The commission in Brussels will have to do its share and more of heavy lifting," Ford says.

By the end of this year it will need to present its proposals to the European Parliament with respect to granting China market economy status by December 2016.

"This will not be an easy sell," Ford says. "They must start preparing the ground now."

To successfully pass bilateral investment pacts and market economy status, Ford says, Brussels and Beijing, the commission and member states will need to work in concert and marginalize anyone who threatens to stand in the way of stronger EU-China relations.

Kerry Brown, team leader of the Europe China Research and Advice Network, funded by the European Union, says the best time for Tusk to visit China would be a few months into his presidency, so he has had an opportunity to set out his agenda and to establish his key objectives and political strategy.

"A visit too early would mean that this might not yet be clear. A visit in perhaps March or April would mean that there was already a sense of his style of leadership and his key outputs for this new position."

As for Tusk's priorities, Brown says, there is unlikely to be a big difference with his predecessor.

Tusk needs to give a stronger sense to the Chinese that he is a leader in Europe who they can get coherence and results from, Brown says, particularly given that his predecessor was lower profile and perhaps less successful in China.

"Tusk needs to give some sense of confidence to his interlocutors in Beijing that he is a man who can create coherence over Chinese policy from the EU and actually deliver the goods. The EU remains China's largest partner in terms of intellectual property, and this is an important asset to have. He needs to leverage this to build the best possible political relationship."

Arnaldo Abruzzini, secretary-general of Eurochambres, the Association of European Chambers of Commerce and Industry, based in Brussels, says the best time to visit China is the beginning of the year. "The importance of our bilateral relations will only increase in the future and I am happy that this doesn't only involve economic but also political aspects and people-to-people exchanges."

Fredrik Erixon, director of the European Center for International Political Economy in Brussels, says it is also important that Tusk set the right goals for Europe's relationship with China in an early phase of his tenure, so that the two sides can begin to work together to define what an agenda of mutual interest would be, apart from stimulating trade.

Tusk will probably be a different leader from Herman Van Rompuy," Erixon says. "He will add a strategic dimension to the presidency, and that is of course important in China-EU relations."

China is going through a structural economic slowdown and Europe has structural economic weaknesses.

"They both need to advance an economic reform agenda to free up the economy for more competition and entrepreneurship," Erixon says. "All of this is a tall order, but it is a task where the two sides can be useful for each other."

Duncan Freeman, research fellow at the Brussels Institute of Contemporary China Studies, says Tusk's visit should take place as soon as possible.

When Xi visited Brussels last year, he proposed a broad partnership with the EU in several areas. He has also proposed the New Silk Road, or one belt and one road. "The EU has not given any real response to these ideas," Freeman says. "No doubt the Chinese side will be looking for some response, especially to the New Silk Road concept, as it is supposed to reach all the way to Europe."

Contact the writers through fujing@chinadaily.com.cn

President Xi Jinping and his wife Peng Liyuan meet King Philippe and Queen Mathilde of Belgium in Brussels on March 30 as Xi started his visit to EU headquarters, the first such visit by a Chinese president. Lan Hongguang / Xinhua

(China Daily European Weekly 01/09/2015 page10)