China's infrastructure plan not another stimulus: economist
Updated: 2016-05-15 16:52
(Xinhua)
|
|||||||||
BEIJING - China's infrastructure spending plan is not comparable to the 2008 stimulus, a J.P.Morgan economist claims.
The Ministry of Transport and the National Development and Reform Commission has announced that 4.7 trillion yuan ($720 billion) will be spent on infrastructure from 2016-2018, covering 303 projects.
The decision has been misinterpreted as another large stimulus similar to that which followed the global financial crisis, but this is not the case, according to a research note by Zhu Haibin, J.P.Morgan China Chief Economist.
Zhu expects the projects to include some which are already underway and the spending is in line with existing policy rather than an additional amount.
The 13th Five-Year-Plan (FYP) contains slightly lower targets for railway and highway spending, but higher targets in city rail and airports compared to the previous FYP. Spending is still critical if policy targets are to be met, Zhu said.
With manufacturing investment is continuing to fall as capacity is reduced and real estate inventories are still high, infrastructure has become the focus of policy. It is worth noting that the concept of infrastructure has expanded in recent years to cover new areas such as city rail, pipelines, water conservancy, utilities and the environment, he said.
Furthermore, 4.7 trillion yuan today is not comparable to 4 trillion in 2008, he said. The amount today accounts for 6.9 percent of 2015 GDP or 8.5 percent of fixed investment and will be spread over three years. In 2008, the amount represented 14.9 percent of 2007 GDP and 33.8 percent of fixed investment. Total spending on infrastructure was only 2.3 trillion yuan in 2007 and is now over 11 trillion yuan.
In addition, 4 trillion is an inaccurate estimate of the 2008-09 stimulus with the actual amount much bigger, as reflected in credit growth and expansion of local government debt, Zhu added.
Related Stories
China to help Morocco in infrastructure and industry: Premier Li 2016-05-13 11:17
Govt launches $700b plan to improve infrastructure in next three years 2016-05-12 14:05
First infrastructure phase in Baotou high-tech industrial base complete 2016-05-10 11:34
Biggest China-Pakistan Economic Corridor infrastructure project begins construction 2016-05-10 10:19
Infrastructure expansion in rural areas key to growth 2016-05-11 13:55
Poor infrastructure, strict regulation prove a drag on corporate aviation 2016-05-10 09:45
Today's Top News
China urges EU to honor MES status, despite parliamentary vote
Generation of new imams preach peace
Streaming stars
China vows to step up anti-corruption co-op
Chinese entrants in public speaking contest fight hard
Global anti-corruption summit opens in London
Britain raises threat of terror attacks to higher level
Chinese students to benefit from EU rules easing
Hot Topics
Lunar probe , China growth forecasts, Emission rules get tougher, China seen through 'colored lens', International board,
Editor's Picks
Lords of the ring |
Focus on fame |
Generation of new imams preach peace |
Streaming stars |
Initiatives help UK startups get a foothold in China |
Originality becomes fashionable |