Growth and reform

Updated: 2016-01-01 08:16

By Andrew Moody(China Daily Europe)

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Growth and reform

A container terminal at the port of Qingdao in Shandong province. The Chinese economy faces many challenges including global economic uncertainty. Provided to China Daily

Tackling local government debt, a critical weakness of the economy, and allowing municipalities to issue bonds and develop more sustainable funding mechanisms will also be a central plank of policy.

Oliver Barron, head of the China office of London-based investment bank NSBO, believes policymakers will take the necessary steps to achieve at least 6.7 percent GDP growth in 2016.

He thinks that if the government is too bold on SOE reform, it could undermine its overall growth strategy.

"Efforts to tackle stubborn industrial overcapacity and push forward SOE reform are a double-edged sword. They are necessary to secure sustainable growth in the long term but will put more downward pressure on economic growth in the short term," he says.

"If reform is carried out too rapidly, there is significant downside risk that growth would fall below the expected plan target."

George Magnus, associate at the Oxford University China Centre and a leading expert on the Chinese economy, says the December conference in Beijing unveiled a new direction in government policy.

He says measures to tackle SOE inefficiency, particularly the so-called zombie companies, as well as reducing corporation tax and initiatives to support certain industry sectors appeared to be a serious attempt to set a new course.

"They span serious measures to promote efficiency and boost total factor productivity."

He expects the government to set a target of 6.5 percent for GDP growth in March, below that of 2015.

"We are looking at a situation where the growth target remains the top priority for policymakers. We shouldn't ignore the traditional tools of policy that will be deployed to try and support this."

One of the main engines for growth next year is likely to be a more expansionary fiscal policy.