XI'AN - China's first homegrown commercial regional aircraft, the ARJ21, has made a successful international debut at the Zhuhai air show.

China's first homegrown commercial regional aircraft, the ARJ21, makes its debut at the Zhuhai air show on Nov 9, 2010. [Photo/Xinhua]

It caught the attention of excited Chinese nationals and the world's aviation media, but experts have said that it's still too early to celebrate, as there is no guarantee of commercial success.

This was noted despite the ARJ21 securing 100 orders during the China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition. The six-day exhibition was held in Zhuhai, a coastal city in South China's Guangdong province, and ended Sunday.

During the air show, China's AVIC International Holding Corporation signed a deal with ARJ21's manufacturer, the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac), to sell 100 ARJ21-700 baseline models to overseas markets. This  brought the number of ARJ21-700 orders to 340 in total.

"It's not that unusual to get made-in-China aircraft up into the sky. What matters most is whether the planes can sell well," said Zhou Jisheng, ARJ21's former deputy-chief designer. "Uncertainties remained because we don't know whether those orders would be fulfilled," explained Zhou.

Many of the existing orders are orders of intent which are not legally binding. As for the confirmed orders, airlines can still cancel them if manufacturers fail to deliver the craft on time.

The ARJ21-700 has experienced several delays over the years. Comac now aims to deliver its first ARJ21-700 jet in 2011, delayed by yet another year after planning to have the first delivery ready by the end of this year.

The 78- to 90-seat craft has a maximum flight range of 3,700 kilometers and maximum altitude of 11,900 meters, according to Comac.

Chen Yong, the plane's chief designer, said that the jet has already begun high-intensity test flights in order to gain its airworthiness certificates from the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC).

So far, ARJ21-700 has completed more than 900 hours of tests during 400 trial flights since November 2008. Comac is also working towards gaining certification from the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in order to make the ARJ21 the first Chinese commercial aircraft to receive US approval.

This could help sell the aircraft overseas. The FAA has agreed to embark on a shadow certification, which involves ensuring the CAAC certification process is in line with FAA standards.

Highly-competitive market

There have been cases where China succeeded in manufacturing aircraft yet failed to sell them.

The country developed its first large passenger aircraft, the Y-10, in the 1970s, but the 538-million-yuan project was canceled in 1983 as it had no buyer. Also, the Y-7 (Chinese version of the Antonov An-24) was designed in the 1960s but was not put on the commercial market until the mid 1980s as it lacked attractiveness to both passengers and airlines.

With a more mature international aircraft manufacturing industry, the competition is now more intense than ever, therefore more effort is needed for the ARJ21 to succeed commercially experts said.

"ARJ21 has strong competitors," said Zhou Jisheng, referring to Embraer's ERJ190 and Bombardier's C Series.

Produced by the world's largest regional jet manufacturer, the ERJ190 seems to be the biggest threat to the ARJ21 as it has a similar market target and has already gained market recognition.

Meanwhile, the C Series jets of the Canada-based builder Bombardier will be put into production in 2013. These will also be a potential rival to the ARJ21 as Bombardier has a credible and extensive reputation in producing regional airplanes.

Russia and Japan have also begun developing regional jets and this is something which should never be ignored according to Yang Chaofan, an expert in aerospace engineering.

However, not all of the news is bad. Comac last week forecasted an optimistic future market with China purchasing 4,440 planes by 2029. This accounts for 14 percent of the world's total.

The country will also build more new airports, especially in mid- and small-sized cities, which will provide a big market for regional jets, according to Comac's forecast.

"On one hand, the competition is very fierce. While on the other hand, we have a rather promising market. Therefore, we can only find out the ARJ's future through market testing," Zhou said.