Reforms will enhance growth potential
Updated: 2014-02-19 07:05
By Ma Jun (China Daily)
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Third, China's political situation has become more stable since the change of leadership, partly due to the success of the anti-corruption program, while other emerging economies, such as Thailand, Turkey, South Africa, India and Brazil, are now either experiencing serious political challenges and/or facing uncertain election outcomes.
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Fifth, China's financial risks are being addressed by reforms. Many investors fear that China's wealth management product defaults and local government financing vehicle loans will lead to a blow up of the financial system. This is very unlikely. Given the recent resolution of the China Credit Trust event, it is now clear to us that the authorities are embarking on a path toward "managed defaults" to gradually improve risk pricing in the trust loan sector, while tightening rules on shadow banking activities.
As for the local government financing vehicles, their liability to asset ratio has actually declined in the past two and half years by 4.9 percentage points, according to a recent National Audit Report. The local government bond market will be developed to gradually replace local government financing vehicle loans as a more important source of financing for local government capital expenditure.
Clearly all these changes are in the direction of reducing financial risks, rather than increasing risks.
The author is the Chief Economist for Greater China of Deutsche Bank.
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