'New normal', new world

Updated: 2015-03-16 07:20

By Reuters(Agencies)

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'New normal', new world

China's cooling growth prospects are expected to shift the economic agenda away from the eurozone, although Greece remains firmly in the spotlight because of its precarious funding outlook.

China is expected to provide further hints of the challenges it faces after the world's No 2 economy depicted its "new normal" during this month's annual meeting of the National People's Congress-a growth target of 7 percent for this year, the lowest for quarter of a century.

Retail sales rose 10.7 percent year-on-year in January-February, the lowest pace in a decade, said the National Bureau of Statistics. Fixed-asset investment, a crucial driver of the Chinese economy, rose 13.9 percent, and the industrial output grew 6.8 percent, the weakest expansion since late 2008.

As Chinese leaders are developing a more balanced longterm growth model, keeping the breakneck economic expansion of recent decades in check, all eyes will be on the reforms they are expected to outline further this year.

"Asia will be firmly in focus," Standard Chartered analyst Madhur Jha said. "The (Chinese) government is likely to emphasize the need for deeper structural reforms to ensure more sustainable growth, even if it is likely to be softer in the near term."

As markets digest China's warning shots, the eurozone's ups and downs will not be far from investors' minds.

A four-month respite for Athens after it extended a bailout program has done little to ease concerns that Greece may face a cash crunch before then.

Its funding options took center-stage at a March 2 meeting of eurozone finance ministers, who discussed the economic reforms that Athens hoped would help it unlock some financial aid from international lenders.

The government sent an updated list of reforms to Brussels on March 6 and said it wanted to start talks with lenders immediately on concluding its bailout and a possible follow-up deal. It also repaid part of an International Monetary Fund loan that falls due this month.

With Greece insisting it has breathing space, the Eurogroup session is unlikely to prompt any key decisions on Athens' next steps. Worries about the country's prospects beyond June are adding to tensions, however, as European officials wrangle over the chances of a third rescue package.

Greece's travails come against a rosier backdrop for the eurozone, after the European Central Bank, which kicked off its $1 trillion government bond-buying plan last Monday, raised growth forecasts.

Industrial production figures for the single currency area are also expected to support this encouraging picture, rising slightly after a year-on-year fall in December, and echoing a strong start to the year for German output.

Firmer United States consumer spending would further support expectations the Federal Reserve is braced for a rate hike as early as June, following a sluggish start to the year even after a drop in fuel prices.

Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services-"core" retail sales, considered to the best gauge of households' spending patterns-edged up only 0.1 percent in January.

The United States employment accelerated in February, with non-farm payrolls rising a higher-than-expected 295,000. "Such a blockbusting rate of job creation will encourage the Fed to be more aggressive," said David Lamb, senior dealer at foreign exchange brokerage FEXCO.