Uphill battle consumers are struggling to win
Updated: 2016-04-01 08:29
By Zhu Qiwen(China Daily Europe)
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Among the government's tasks as it restructures the economy is making sure people feel free to spend with confidence
The bright picture a recent McKinsey report painted about the rise of modern Chinese consumers is indeed tempting for businesses at home and abroad. The rewards must be substantial for those who get it right with the swelling consumer group, which has so far looked surprisingly confident.
But this is not the time to take China's consumer growth for granted, especially because economic headwinds remain strong. Tons of tasks need to be done before Chinese consumers can survive and thrive in the ongoing transformation of the country's economy. For policymakers, the most urgent tasks include helping consumers cope with the challenges of slowing income growth and building a truly consumer-friendly environment.
One of the most eye-catching facts of McKinsey's 2016 China consumer report is that, of the 10,000 consumers interviewed in 44 cities, as much as 55 percent were confident their incomes would increase significantly in the next five years - just 2 percentage points lower than in 2012. By comparison, McKinsey found only 32 percent of consumers in the US and 30 percent in the UK agreed with the same statement in 2011.
Such extraordinary consumer confidence in China speaks volumes of the rise in salaries over recent years and people's deep faith in the government's promise to help double the average income between 2010 and 2020.
This is not to say Chinese consumers are unaware of the deteriorating condition of the economy, as the McKinsey report says. A growing number of them are seeking to save and invest. The still upbeat mood of consumers represents a rare source of momentum for growth that policymakers should make the best use of, in order to boost consumption-led growth, so that it can underpin the painful but necessary restructuring of the economy.
While the government is doing what needs to be done to reduce excess industrial capacity, policymakers should take the necessary measures to ensure the economic restructuring doesn't come at the expense of a big dent in consumers' purchasing power and confidence.
The government has earmarked 100 billion yuan ($14.5 billion; 13.6 billion euros) for relocating and retraining about 6 million workers in the coal and steel sectors in the next two years. And on March 21, Shanghai, following some provinces and regions, decided to lower the social security premium contributed by companies by 2.5 percentage points, in a bid to boost the real economy.
All these emergency measures will more or less have an impact on some consumers' purchasing power and thus their confidence.
If robust consumption growth is needed to offset the slowing of investment- and export-led growth, policymakers have to come up with more pro-consumer tax and fiscal incentives to bolster consumer confidence.
Equally important for the government is the need to intensify efforts to improve the environment for people to save, spend or invest as they become more selective than ever. In this regard, it was a welcome change to hear the Shanghai Stock Exchange saying on March 21 that it had, for the first time, delisted a company for breaching the information disclosure rules. So is the news of the State Administration of Press, Publication, Radio and Television suspending the distribution license of a company accused of fraudulently boosting by millions of dollars the box office returns of a martial arts movie.
But much more needs to be done to end the frauds that have been violating Chinese consumers' rights and weakening their confidence.
The McKinsey report has rightly pointed out that understanding and responding to the changes in consumers' spending habits will be decisive in determining the companies, domestic and overseas, that win or lose.
But for that to happen, policymakers must do more to enable consumers to spend with confidence.
The author is a senior writer with China Daily. Contact the writer at zhuqiwen@chinadaily.com.cn
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