Pilots of a Russian Sukhoi Su-24 fighter jet prepare before a flight at the Hmeymim air base near Latakia, Syria, in this handout photograph released by Russia's Defence Ministry October 5, 2015.[Photo/Agencies]

After Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet on Tuesday, observers are wondering the real reason behind the incident. While some analysts say it might be an accident, more tend to link it with Turkey's disputes with Russia.

It is too early to reach a definitive conclusion, but the two countries have been at loggerheads since Russia started its air strikes against Islamic State targets in Syria. Turkey wants Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to go. But by reportedly targeting the IS group and the rebel Syrian forces both, Russia, many believe, is protecting Assad.

And since Turkey has repeatedly alleged that Russia is violating its airspace and claims to have warned the Russian jet before shooting it down, one can say it is not an accident.

The incident has triggered a diplomatic storm, with Russian President Vladimir Putin calling it "a stab in the back" and Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu saying Turkey has the right and duty to "take measures against anybody who violates (its) borders". Also, since Putin and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan both are known for advocating nationalism, they have to maintain tough postures in a bid to strengthen their support base at home. As a result, Russia-Turkey diplomatic relations could suffer in the near future.

But the likelihood of a war breaking out between the two countries is rather remote. It may be true that Russia launched the air strikes in Syria to get an upper hand in the competition with Western powers. But a war with Turkey will be a very heavy economic burden for Russia, especially because it already faces severe economic constraints. As for Turkey, the losses it will suffer in a war with Russia will be simply too heavy to bear.