It is no surprise that NATO, after five months of military intervention in Libya, has finally agreed to embark on a political solution to the crisis.

The reality check is grim and ugly. After launching more than 6,000 air strikes and hitting 5,000 targets, Tripoli is still in the hands of forces loyal to Muammar Gadhafi. Apart from the casualties suffered by both the government and the opposition forces, there have also been many civilian casualties and the humanitarian situation in Libya continues to deteriorate.

According to the United Nations, 630,000 people have fled Libya since the conflict began, and 200,000 more have been internally displaced throughout the country. More than 1,000 people have died trying to escape from Libya to Europe.

With NATO's bombing campaign failing to drive Gadhafi out of power and no end to the conflict in sight there are growing signs of fatigue and discord among the NATO members operating in Libya.

Italy has called for a suspension of hostilities and Norway has declared it will withdraw its fighter jets by the end of this month. The new US Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta warned two weeks ago that some NATO allies could see their forces "exhausted" within 90 days.

In the meantime, international pressure to resolve the conflict has been gaining weight. Russia has refused to recognize Benghazi as the only legitimate authority and called for a dialogue in Libya to create a transitional political structure. A UN envoy is contacting relevant parties in Libya for peace negotiations and the African Union (AU) has proposed a road map in a bid to resolve the Libyan crisis.

China hopes the two sides in Libya can adopt a more flexible and pragmatic attitude and seriously consider the peace plan proposed by the AU and other parties.

With international opinion swinging behind a political solution, NATO has even considered withdrawing the arrest warrant for Gadhafi issued by the International Criminal Court.

But the outlook for a political resolution to the Libyan conflict is far from rosy. Major differences still exist between Tripoli and Benghazi. While Tripoli said Gadhafi's future is non-negotiable, Benghazi has insisted that he must step down and leave the country.

As the ill-organized opposition forces make little progress on the battlefields, analysts believe that political dissension has also emerged in Benghazi, manifested in part by the arrest warrant issued by Benghazi against Abdel Fattah Younes, its military commander, and the following killing of him by two unidentified gunmen.

NATO and Benghazi must find a way to include the forces fighting on Gadhafi's side and his tribal supporters if there is to be post-Gadhafi political order.

In order to avoid a protracted civil war, concessions must be made by both Tripoli and Benghazi so a power-sharing framework can be devised. It is imperative for all concerned that the two sides leave the battlefields and head to the negotiation table. That is the only hope for peace.

(China Daily 08/02/2011 page8)