With Europe's influence waning sharply in the next decades, the transatlantic alliance will play a far diminished role, and it is in regions like Asia that the 21st century will be most likely molded and defined, predicts Richard N. Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, in an op-ed piece published by the Washington Post on June 18.

Haass, who also served as the director of policy and planning at the State Department from 2001 to 2003, gave his pessimistic assessment after the outgoing US Secretary of State Robert Gates berated NATO and America's European allies in his final policy speech, warning of "the real possibility for a dim if not dismal future for the transatlantic alliance."

"Certainly, one reason for NATO's increasing marginalization stems from the behavior of its European members," says Haass. These failings include a lack of coordination, an inclination to make critical decisions nationally and the stalled process of genuinely formulating a common defense policy, which were all exposed in the intervention in Libya.

More important, since the end of Cold War and the demise of the Soviet Union, the political willingness for European nations to provide adequate public funds to the military has been declining steadily. Ironically, Haass notes, it is precisely "Europe's own notable successes" - the building of an integrated Europe over the past half-century and the freedom and stability it enjoys - that transatlantic ties will matter less in the future.

Moreover, political and demographic changes within Europe, as well as the United States, also "ensure that the transatlantic alliance will lose prominence," according to the article, as grappling with mounting economic problems and an ageing population takes precedence.

"The conclusions are simple" for the US, says Haass. It should first accept and adapt to the change. Then the US should also maintain or develop bilateral relations with "those few countries in Europe willing and able to act in the world”. Finally, other allies - South Korea and Japan in Asia or Israel and Saudi Arabia in Middle East - are likely to become more relevant partners in these regions that present the greatest potential challenges.