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Repercussions of bin Laden's death

Updated: 2011-05-05 07:54

By Wang Hui (China Daily)

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Despite some suspicions over its authenticity, the gunning down of the world's No 1 terrorist, Osama bin Laden by US Navy Seals on Sunday is epoch-making. It marks the end of decade-long efforts by the United States to avenge the Sept 11, 2001 terrorist attacks that claimed thousands of lives.

Nevertheless, it is not time for it to celebrate just yet, as the world must brace itself for the repercussions from Sunday's dramatic event.

Despite the death of the Al-Qaida leader, the terrorist network still has the ability to retaliate.

In recent years, Al-Qaida groups have spread all over the world. Using the Internet for propaganda and as a means of communication, they have recruited members in Central Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa and even Europe. Besides 9/11, Al-Qaida has also been accused of masterminding or instigating a series of terrorist attacks around the world, including massive bloody assaults in Kenya, Iraq and Yemen.

Global intelligence company Stratfor, which is based in Texas, holds that the elimination of bin Laden will have very little impact on Al-Qaida as a whole. Meanwhile, in a White House press briefing on Monday, John Brennan, assistant to the president for homeland security and counter-terrorism, said that although bin Laden's death was a blow to Al-Qaida, it was not a deadly one.

As long as the Al-Qaida network is still in operation, countries around the world will have to remain vigilant for a long time to come. The US, Britain, France, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand, all issued alerts against possible terrorist attacks and strengthened anti-terror measures soon after the death of bin Laden.

As far as the US is concerned, the dramatic killing of bin Laden will not only result in more domestic confidence in the Obama administration, it will also facilitate Washington's overseas power projection.

US President Barack Obama's approval ratings rose soon after the news was made public. If Obama can maintain this momentum, the chances of him winning a second term will increase. Some analysts have already called the operation against bin Laden a start to Obama's re-election campaign.

However, in the international arena, the killing of bin Laden is likely to be more symbolic than actual for the US, given that it is still mired in Afghanistan and Iraq..

Meanwhile, the elimination of bin Laden will have undesirable consequences for US' relations with Pakistan. For years, Washington has tried to court Islamabad in exchange for the latter's support for its anti-terror crusade.

Pakistan has welcomed bin Laden's death, but its foreign ministry expressed "deep concerns" about what it called an "unauthorized unilateral action". The fact that the US carried out the operation without notifying Pakistan constitutes a violation of the latter's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

In explanation, the CIA said it did not tell Pakistan about the raid in advance because it feared bin Laden would be tipped off. This is a clear indication of the deep mistrust between the two countries.

Washington has vowed to "get to the bottom" of whether Pakistan helped bin Laden elude a 10-year manhunt before he was killed in the US raid.

All these do not bode well for the prospect of Washington-Islamabad relations at the beginning of the post-bin Laden era.

The author is a senior writer with China Daily.

(China Daily 05/05/2011 page8)

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