Protectionist push could have implications for China

This time it is different. That five-word slogan was the European Commission's message to the world, and more particularly EU voters, that was emblazoned on a huge banner that adorned its 13-story headquarters in Brussels until a few days ago.

If the slogan, referring to EU elections, was meant to fire voters with enthusiasm, it seems to have failed dismally, fewer than half of the 400 million voters having bothered to cast ballots in the 28-member states of the bloc during the four-day election.

But the slogan was spot on, even if in an unintended way. It referred to the fact that in this year's election, voters would have increased power by dint of changes brought in by the Treaty of Lisbon. In the event, it seemed to more closely sum up the political earthquake that the election produced in Brussels as anti-EU parties gained strength, leaving old political hands in the EU little reason to celebrate. It was the first election since the Treaty of Lisbon, the overarching law of the European project, which came into force in December 2009, amending previous treaties that go back to the formation of the original European Community 62 years ago.

Though pro-EU parties will still hold the majority of the 751 seats in the new parliament, far right parties - the UK Independent Party in Britain, the Danish People's Party in Denmark and the National Front in France among them - have emerged victorious.

The aftershocks of the election, indicating a rise in populist and anti-EU sentiment, were so strong that French Prime Minister Manuel Valls called the National Front's success "an earthquake that all responsible leaders must respond to".

The right-wing parties, strongly patriotic, protectionist and opposed to immigration, can now form a voting bloc in the parliament.

Analysts say the far-right parties will not only exert their influence in the parliament to block further integration, but will have a nefarious influence on politics in their home countries. All this will make it increasingly difficult for the 28-member bloc to speak with one voice, they say. And European politicians will have to grapple with those tough realities for the next five years.

Analysts say the election results hold sober warnings for EU decision-makers not just on integration but on other matters as well, and it is clear that the politicians had better start listening.

For years, voters across the EU have been singularly unimpressed by MEPs' performances, and that is reflected in the low turnout. At the root of much of the disillusion is the economic malaise, including a double-dip recession, soaring rates of youth unemployment and cuts in wages and social welfare benefits.

Against that backdrop, millions of Europeans now have strong doubts about the benefits of a grand project aimed at building a united continent.

The politicians, of course, can wheel out any number of excuses for the poor state of affairs. The EU, which sprouted from a desire for peace after World War II, eventually evolved into a push for economic and monetary union, and that makes it a lot different to the United States, which is highly developed in regulatory terms.

Over the years the EU has formed internal firewalls against sovereign debt crises and established bodies that regulate financial institutions such as banks and insurance.

To stanch any bleeding in what is still an ill-formed system, it has used policies of austerity and implemented strict fiscal discipline. Those measures have been forced on governments often as a result of too much social welfare and social rigidity that reduced productivity and robbed economies of their vigor.

Politicians may well counter that their vision has helped the continent largely avoid war and that in any case the economy is slowly improving.

But the voters who bothered to have their say have made their disillusion clear. One worrying thing is that the clock may be turned back on this economic recovery if the parties of the far right exert greater influence.

It is barely imaginable that all 28 member states would close their borders and that the 17 countries that use the euro would abandon it and return to their own currencies, and yet that is what the far right parties want.

Over the past five years, the EU has needed China's help to get out of its financial mess, something Brussels always says originated in the US.

So Brussels has generally retained a friendly and constructive engagement with Beijing, even if it tried to block China's multi-billion-euro export of solar panels to the EU in 2012-13.

It is too early to assess how the rise of the far right parties will affect EU-China relations, something that can only be done once the political formations in Brussels have taken shape and all of the players have taken their seats.

However, it should be noted that the European Parliament has been given more of a say in deciding bilateral treaties, based on the Lisbon Treaty. China and the EU are in talks on an investment treaty and China is looking forward to early talks on a free trade treaty.

The far right parties are inward-looking and protectionist. As they have a greater say it is inevitable that a closer economic relationship between China and EU will face more barriers.

A lot depends on the ability of Brussels to do political balancing acts and on whether it can correct its institutional flaws in the process of integration.

The bottom line is that the more opportunities the EU's politicians grasp, the quicker their countries' economies will grow, and the more support they will gain from voters.

For the EU's political class, and for many others besides, the alternative is bleak: anti-EU sentiment that will only continue to pick up steam.

The author is chief correspondent of China Daily based in Brussels. Contact the writer at fujing@chinadaily.com.cn

(China Daily European Weekly 05/30/2014 page11)