Trade in the balance

Updated: 2013-02-01 09:12

By Yan Yiqi (China Daily)

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China's production of xanthan, an additive widely used in food processing, reached 74,000 tons in 2010, about 67 percent of the world's total production.

"This is only a beginning of this year's trade frictions between China and the US. A lot more will follow, which will largely affect the export businesses," Wei says.

Nurturing emerging markets seems to be the most urgent mission for Chinese exporters, since the losses in the developed markets are inevitable, experts say.

John Ross, a former adviser of ex-London mayor Ken Livingstone and now a visiting professor at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, says that the situation of the developed markets as a whole is weak.

"Adjusted for inflation, the latest data shows that imports by developed economies are still 5 percent below their level before the international financial crisis, whereas imports by developing economies are now 20 percent above pre-financial crisis levels. The majority of China's exports now go to developing economies and this trend will be further reinforced in 2013," he says.

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The one piece of good news that should drive Chinese exporters is the sheer number of developing markets, or in other words the numerous choices to spread the export basket.

In 2012, China's bilateral trade with the ASEAN countries rose by 10.2 percent year-on-year to $400.09 billion. The growth rate of China's trade with Russia was 11.2 percent.

Wei says the ASEAN and African markets are two important battlefields for Chinese exporters to maintain growth rate this year.

"These two regions are the most friendly markets for Chinese exporters. Although up to now, the scale of Chinese exports to these two regions cannot be compared with the EU and US markets, the growth rate has been encouraging," he says.

Pascal Lamy, director-general of the World Trade Organization, said in November that trade between developing economies has been growing in high speed and will account for larger proportions in the global trade.

According to Lamy, Africa will overtake the EU and the US to become China's largest trading partner in the next three to five years.

On Dec 3, Standard Bank, South Africa's biggest bank, said trade between Africa and China in 2012 is likely to surpass $200 billion, compared with $166 billion in 2011.

The bank said in a report that China's trade with Africa has grown nearly twice as fast as its trade with Latin America, which is the second strongest performer.

According to the report, China accounts for 20 percent of Africa's trade and Africa has become China's fastest-growing export destination and trade partner. It estimated that 18 percent of Africa's imports were sourced from China in 2012, up from 16.8 percent in 2011.

Compared with China's total trade's year-on-year growth rate of 6.2 percent and 3.7 percent drop between China and the EU, the trade performance with Africa is more than encouraging.

According to statistics from China's General Administration of Customs, bilateral trade between China and South Africa reached $59.95 billion in 2012, rising 31.8 percent year-on-year. Exports from China to South Africa hit $15.33 billion, growing by 14.7 percent from a year earlier, while imports grew by 39 percent to $44.62 billion.

Yang Baorong, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, says that the African markets can be good alternatives for Chinese exporters in many industries.

"We are expecting a higher economic growth rate in Africa this year, with an average of 4.8 percent. The growth rate is likely to be 6.3 percent for countries south of the Sahara Desert. Unlike developed economies, most markets in African countries are filled with potential in almost every industry. It is still in the first come first served stage," he says.

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