Other measures, such as improving traffic management, make far more sense

Guangzhou has decided to emulate Beijing and Shanghai in clamping down on the number of cars on the road. There is little doubt that this policy will hurt the automobile industry, even if initially it can produce a buying frenzy. Only two days after the measure was introduced, the market value of the two listed companies Guangzhou Automobile Industry Group and Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation shrank by nearly 16 billion yuan ($2.5 billion, 2 billion euros).

While those kinds of figures leave no doubt about how big a hit on the automobile industry such measures are, the question is whether a simple step such as restricting the issue of licenses can really solve congestion problems in big cities.

First let's compare some big cities. In Beijing 4.72 million vehicles (excluding motorcycles) are registered, equivalent to 142 vehicles for every kilometer of road; in Shanghai 1.72 million vehicles are registered, or 103 for each kilometer; and in Guangzhou, 1.67 million are registered, or 116 a kilometer.

It is clear that those figures leave Guangzhou out of the top league in China for vehicle numbers and concentration. For example, the concentration of vehicles in Shenzhen is triple that of Guangzhou.

The difference with figures in Tokyo is even more stark. Tokyo's urban area is only one third that of Guangzhou, and one ninth that of Beijing, it has three times the number of vehicles of Guangzhou, and just as many as Beijing. But even with Tokyo's population of more than 13 million, there are seldom traffic jams there, even during rush hours. And Tokyo has none of the various car measures used in Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou, such as alternate-day use of cars and rush-hour restrictions. So how does Tokyo, with the same number of vehicles as Beijing, solve traffic congestion when its roads are narrower than those of the Chinese capital?

First, road traffic in Tokyo is well-managed. Well-developed public transport means people can choose the most logical and convenient way of getting around. Figures show that during the morning rush hour in downtown Tokyo, 91 percent of people travel by rail, while only 6 percent use cars. The strict enforcement of traffic laws by police and Tokyo drivers' strict adherence to the rules means traffic generally flows freely.

The urban area of Tokyo is only one third that of Guangzhou, but its road network stretches more than 24,000 kilometers, 1.6 times that of Guangzhou. In addition, Tokyo has 13 subway lines stretching more than 400 kilometers. Such infrastructure is the basis of Tokyo's effective traffic management.

Before Chinese cities decided to limit the issue of licenses, did they take into account any shortcomings in managing traffic in the city? Apart from the lack of infrastructure, these cities lack a collective awareness of how matters of transport affect everyone.

We know that car ownership in China has soared in the past 10 years or so, particularly in the past three years, during which ownership has doubled.

However, local government traffic management is clearly unable to keep up with the pace of development of the auto market, and public awareness of wider traffic matters is almost zero. Even in a metropolitan city like Shanghai, traffic lights are only effective within the city's central ring road area. In the outer ring road area and the suburbs it is common to see vehicles going through red lights. For non-motorized vehicles and pedestrians, traffic rules exist in name only.

It is clear that with China's urban transport the prevailing culture is the law of the jungle, one in which drivers and pedestrians alike do as they please. Cars and pedestrians are adversaries on roads on which safety is a forgotten commodity.

That has made China a leader in traffic accidents. Last year more than 230,000 accidents were recorded, resulting in 62,000 deaths, equivalent to a fully loaded Airbus A320 crashing every day of the year and killing all on board.

Many Chinese who have driven on roads in other countries lament that people stick rigidly to the rules, fearful about being stopped by police, and aware that a speeding ticket can bring a fine of a few hundred dollars.

In contrast, few cities in China have mobile traffic police to enforce laws, and traffic cameras are almost universally condemned. Shanghai even has to tell people where traffic cameras are located. Which raises the question: What exactly is the point of these cameras? To alert drivers so they can nonchalantly continue speeding and driving through red lights in areas they know are not under surveillance? Because police are doing nothing, offenders are allowed to get away with breaking the law, and this contributes to urban congestion.

Shenzhen is a place where the government has made great efforts to bring order to the roads. The city, which has the highest concentration of motor vehicles in the country, 303 for every kilometer, is now still open to licensing of new motor vehicles.

New road traffic rules came into effect nearly two years ago, and infringement penalties are among the highest in the country. Pedestrians crossing against red lights face fines of 20 yuan, and motorists going through red lights can be fined 500 yuan, and double that for a third violation. Motorists fined a fifth time for driving through a red light can have their driver's license confiscated. Those changing their number plates so as to mislead traffic cameras face a fine of 50,000 yuan.

When these measures were introduced they met with widespread criticism, but within a week of their coming into force speeding captured by traffic cameras fell 60 percent compared with the corresponding period the year before, driving through red lights fell 64 per cent and illegal U-turns fell 98 percent.

It is that kind of approach that has meant Shenzhen can keep on licensing new motor vehicles.

Licensing restrictions not only cannot solve urban congestion, but also greatly damage the domestic auto industry. Restricting licenses in Beijing has led to local brands being marginalized in the local market.

After the curbs came in, the market share of local brands halved last year, from 22 percent to 11 percent; at the same time, the market share of imported cars doubled, from 5 percent to 10 percent. Statistics from China Automobile Dealers Association indicate that last year 11 car dealerships in Beijing closed, most of them selling Chinese brands; 14 new car dealers appeared, most selling imported luxury cars.

If more cities restrict car purchases, the scope for developing Chinese brands and small cars will be further squeezed. That is contrary to government policy of supporting the local automobile industry, and of encouraging small-displacement automobiles.

Traffic congestion has become a problem as China has urbanized. The way to tackle that problem is to improve traffic management and step up construction of infrastructure. Relying on restrictions can only result in the automobile industry, consumers and the government losing out.

The author is director of Asia-Pacific Forecasting, LMC Automotive. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

(China Daily 07/13/2012 page9)