Stock slide's long-term effect will be limited

Updated: 2015-08-28 08:30

By Wang Mingjie and Zhang Chunyan in London, Paul Welitzkin in New York and Hu Yuanyuan in Beijing(China Daily Europe)

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Hufbauer describes US investor interest in Chinese equities at "approximately zero" right now.

"Until we get US Federal Reserve meets in September out of the way, I think markets will continue to be choppy," Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, told the BBC.

When it comes to the economic impact of the stock market fall, Kumar says that it should be similarly limited. While many European countries trade with China, they do not do so on the basis of share price.

Kumar notes that the real worry for European investors and policymakers is if the stock market fall is symptomatic of a real deterioration in Chinese growth. "If that were the case, the above statements might be very different. However, we do not believe that the Chinese economy is failing - it is adjusting, perhaps somewhat jerkily, to its new position in the world. That is a good thing in the long term," he adds.

China's economic slowdown is likely to grind to a halt by the end of this year or the first half of 2016, with GDP growth staying around 7 percent, said Li Daokui, director of Tsinghua University's Center for China in the World Economy, speaking in a panel discussion on Aug 27.

"This round of stock sell-offs is more sentimental, triggered by the concern for the further slowdown of the economy," says Li.

The Shanghai Composite Index gained 5.34 percent on Aug 27, the first rally since the "Black Monday".

Martin Sorrell, head of WPP, the world's biggest advertising company, expressed his confidence in the Chinese economy.

"I remain a raging bull in regard to China," he says, speaking to BBC Radio 4 Today's program on Aug 26, adding that the world should not forget how far the Chinese economy haS come since 1985.

He says the Chinese stock market had become overblown and was undergoing a correction, but long-term secular growth in China was here to stay.

"Hopefully the Chinese market is becoming more international - both in terms of function and participation," Kumar says. "The two go hand in hand - foreign investors will only begin to put real money to work if they can understand the market dynamics."

He notes that all companies want a piece of the Chinese economy -importers and exporters. "Our view is that Chinese growth is changing, from a low-income nation to a medium-income nation. That gives opportunities to supply the growing consumer base with foreign imports."

Koesterich says: "We believe that China will continue to move toward further financial liberalization. We also believe that there is further scope for policy to support China's economy.

City of London's Boleat notes: "City firms are still seeking to do more business with China, looking for investment and exporting opportunities, and the relationship between the City of London and China continues to grow stronger."

Contact the writers through huyuanyuan@chinadaily.com.cn

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