China's pig market is dominated by scattered, small-scale pig raisers, who decide the number of pigs they raise on the current price instead of long-term price movement.

Because of the low price of pork right now, many pig farmers have downsized their breeding stocks.

This will cause a huge short supply of meat in half a year, when pork prices will see a sharp jump.

The other item that is used to monitor food price is glyphosate, a commonly used herbicide in China. Its price movement reflects the production cost of agriculture produces. It, more often than not, reflects the price trend of grains, vegetables and fruits.

Prices of glyphosate have continued to grow in the past weeks. Orders to purchase the weed-killing chemicals have been piling up in many factories for April delivery. This is unusual in an industry where inventory rarely lies in warehouses for even a week.

This shows that agricultural production costs will jump. The rising food costs will be passed on to end consumers, triggering a massive price hike for overall consumer goods.

But when will this happen? October looks to be the time, and there are three reasons behind this prediction.

First, the pork shortage is likely to happen in about six months, based on the cyclic effect of the pig-raising industry. That will occur just a bit earlier than October.

Second, food price hikes are prone to happen when the climate is cool, and October will be the time.

Third, sellers tend to increase prices during holidays, with the National Day among their favorites.

According to the survey by Universal Consultancy, the National Day holiday followed Spring Festival in order of retailers' favorite times to choose to “make a price adjustment”, a polite term for a price hike. In fact, 83 percent of respondents chose Spring Festival and 73 percent selected the National Day. The May Day holiday is favored by just 32 percent, probably because this holiday has fewer days.

The survey was conducted last year, but preliminary figures from a similar survey that is being conducted also point to the same trend this year.

The survey finding that Spring Festival is retailers' most favored choice has been proven. The CPI, a main gauge of inflation, stood at 3.2 percent in February —during Spring Festival —the highest level since May 2012. The figure is close to the government's yearly target of 3.5 percent.

If the rest of the survey's findings also become reality, China's CPI pressure may peak around October.

Based on that prediction, it is suggested that businesses should increase their purchases of raw and half-processed materials in the coming months, when prices of these materials remain at a relatively low level.

As for China's policymakers, while they are busy cleaning up the Huangpu River and tightening the regulation of animal husbandry, they should also keep an eye on the CPI.

Chinahas witnessed tepid inflation since the second quarter of last year, but former premier Wen Jiabao was wary enough of inflation to dub it “the tiger”. Now that there are signs that the tiger is coming out of its cage, the correct monetary policies must be taken to control it.

The author is the founder of Universal Consultancy in Shanghai. She specializes in consumer sector studies. She can be reached at cindychung2008@gmail.com