What does the second half hold in store?
Updated: 2012-07-13 11:16
(China Daily)
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Q1
With analysts forecasting China's second-quarter GDP growth to hit a new low, do you envisage an even lower growth rate in the coming months? How much GDP growth do you forecast for the third quarter?
Q2
The central bank has already cut interest rates twice, first in June, then in July. How much do you think the interest rate cuts are helping the economy's growth? And do you think there is still room for further interest rate cuts and cuts in banks' reserve requirement ratios in the remaining months of the year?
Q3
While inflation is coming down, do you think it is coming down so abruptly as to threaten deflation? What's the likelihood of deflation emerging in China today?
Q4
Do you think a large increase in investment in government projects will help turn around the economy? Or do you think there are other ways to better-stimulate growth?
Niu Li
director of the Macroeconomic Research Center of China's State Information Center, a think tank under the National Development and Reform Commission
A1
According to our forecast, the growth rate in the second quarter is expected to slow to 7.2 percent, the slowest pace in the past three years, which may result in a growth rate of about 7.6 percent in the first half of 2012.
It is likely to rebound to 8 percent in the third quarter and 8.5 percent in the fourth after hitting the bottom in the second quarter.
A2
The recent interest rate cuts by the central bank largely conveyed a move to bolster growth and had very little effect on dragging down financing costs.
Banks should greatly lower various kinds of fees to reduce companies' financing costs.
Given the current decline in funds outstanding for foreign exchange reserves and eased inflation pressures, room remains for further cuts in banks' reserve requirements for the rest time of the year.
A3
Based on the forecast of stronger economic fundamentals in the second half and a rebound of the economy, we think the economy will keep a relatively rapid growth rate and the risk of having to confront deflation is small.
A4
A huge investment stimulus package is unlikely, but the government has accelerated its approvals of some investment projects.
Besides, the government has introduced favorable policies to promote environmental friendly projects, energy-saving vehicles and energy efficient appliances, as well as measures to boost exports by adjusting relating fees, to ensure steady growth in the second half.
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