China's GDP growth to hit 8.3% in 2012: report

Updated: 2012-01-10 15:13


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BEIJING -- China's economy will grow 8.3 percent this year, according to a report by the Deutsche Bank.

Dragged down by decreasing property investment and exports, the economy will continue to decelerate in the first quarter of 2012, with year-on-year GDP growth dropping to somewhere between 6 and 7 percent, said Ma Jun, an economist with the bank, at a forum held on Monday, at which a report on China's economic outlook was released.

However, the economy will pick up the pace in the second quarter and beat last year's year-on-year growth rate in the third quarter, Ma said.

China's economy slowed last year, with its GDP growth dropping to 9.1 percent year-on-year in the third quarter, compared with 9.5 percent in the second quarter and 9.7 percent in the first quarter.

"The rebound in the second and third quarters will be mainly brought by the eurozone's improvements, loosening domestic monetary policies and fiscal measures that encourage consumption and investment in the public sector," Ma said.

Meanwhile, consumer prices will grow at a much slower year-on-year rate of 2.8 percent this year, Ma said, noting that the growth rate will rise again starting in the fourth quarter after dropping to the year's lowest level in the third quarter.

The country's Consumer Price Index (CPI) dipped to 4.2 percent in November, easing from a three-year high of 6.5 percent in July. However, it still gained 5.5 percent year-on-year in the first 11 months of 2011, well above the government's full-year target of 4 percent.

The central bank will cut banks' reserve requirement ratios three or four times in 2012, while the yuan will rise further, up 3.5 percent during the period, Ma said.

Ma said the year's fiscal deficit will be slightly higher than last year's, with fiscal policies and bond issuances targeting affordable housing, the construction of railways and water conservancy products, structural tax reduction and consumption.